The International Labour Organization (ILO) has revised its global employment forecast for 2025, citing mounting economic challenges and heightened trade tensions. According to its latest report released on 28 May, the UN agency now expects job growth to reach 1.5% for the year, down from its earlier projection of 2.1%. This adjustment translates to approximately 53 million new jobs in 2025, seven million fewer than previously anticipated.
The downgrade comes amid a broader slowdown in global economic growth, with projections reduced from 3.2% to 2.8%. The ILO attributes this weakening outlook to persistent geopolitical instability, ongoing military conflicts, and disruptions in global trade patterns. These factors have contributed to an uncertain economic environment, which is placing additional strain on labour markets across both developed and developing economies.
The report highlights that around 84 million jobs in 71 countries are directly tied to demand from U.S. consumers, placing them at elevated risk due to recent trade frictions. Employment sectors in Canada and Mexico are identified as particularly vulnerable, given their economic integration with the United States and their high dependence on exports driven by U.S. consumer activity.
In his statement accompanying the report, ILO Director-General Gilbert F. Houngbo warned of the far-reaching consequences of persistent geopolitical and trade-related tensions. “If geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions continue, and if we do not address fundamental questions that are reshaping the world of work, then they will most certainly have negative ripple effects on labour markets worldwide,” Houngbo said.
The ILO also emphasized that structural transformations in the global economy, such as automation, digitalization, and shifts in production networks, are further compounding the uncertainty. These changes are influencing employment patterns and creating disparities in labour demand across regions and sectors.
In response to the emerging challenges, the ILO calls for greater international cooperation and policy alignment to support employment stability and economic resilience. The organization urges governments and institutions to invest in skills development, enhance social protection systems, and promote inclusive labour market policies.
The report serves as a cautionary assessment of the global employment landscape in 2025, underscoring the interconnectedness of trade, economic performance, and workforce dynamics. The ILO plans to continue monitoring developments closely and update its forecasts as new data become available. – By MENA Newswire News Desk.